[Bilingual] 脫歐公投：到底邊個白痴D？Brexit: Who is the real moron?

刊登於 2016-06-27 By 明鏡 All, 生活文化

cc photo by flickr user Christopher Michel

事前唔寫，主要係我無份投票，而作為市場參與者，真係識嘢嘅根本睇唔透邊一邊會贏，即使撐脫歐都唔認為真係會脫到，咁自然無咩好講啦。好喇，點解宜家要講呢？咪就係幫留歐派嘴臉太難睇，我唯有講兩句囉。

留歐派直接指控脫歐派讀書少、排外，口吻同香港嘅建制派如出一轍。唔出奇，歐盟都係建制嚟嘅…好喇，咁到底脫歐對經濟有無英國政府或其他機構聲稱咁大呢？當然無。貿易，從來都係雙向嘅，唔係好似蝗国人咁講，我俾生意你做我搶哂你嘅貨你仲要謝主隆恩。係，歐盟當然無可能俾非成員國有同等條件，問題係，英國亦唔再需要成個套餐硬食，可以散叫。係呀，唔鍾意食薯條，唔洗叫一個套餐㗎，兩個包加一杯汽水都係廿五蚊㗎咋。根據聯合國定義，呢個世界有195個國家，有咩條件歐盟俾得唔好，仲有好多其他選擇。無咗歐盟捆綁，好多本來好難傾嘅貿易協定全部可以加快傾完，起碼日本、加拿大、瑞士、挪威就係其中幾個貿易對象。其實我以為香港人好清楚？所以，醒少少啦，政府話咩就信咩，咁信建制走去投民建聯啦笨。CEPA萬歲！自由行萬歲！中共千秋萬世！

好，講完貿易，講生意。點解得班大商家同華商嘈？因為歐盟方便引入外來源料、廉價勞工。連CCTVB都問到個中式菜館老闆理所當然咁講：「係呀，我哋工時長人工低，本地人唔肯做，全造歐盟先有廉價勞工。」原材料一樣，無咗歐盟，如果入口真係貴好多，咪好囉，可以用本地貨，絕對係對英國經濟有利。其實中小企、漁農業應該唔難理解。

再講下投資。係，好多人，包括李嘉誠，有講過脫歐嘅英國投資價值會減少。係，不過有其他選擇咩？唔投資喺英國，會轉去投資喺意大利西班牙？吖，係呀，好似有人白痴到覺得環球股市大跌代表脫歐係錯嘅，呢類雷鼎鳴級師奶分析，真係廢過財演。不如睇下富時指數24號收市比17號差幾遠先吹啦。

最後可以提大家一句：希臘差少少脫歐嘅時候，唔止索羅斯一個講過歐盟本身成立嘅時候已經有好多無辦法解決嘅問題，遲早解體。脫歐，其實係止蝕離場嘅最好方法。話時話，喺我完稿嘅呢一刻，德國總理已經講緊無需要逼得英國太緊。咁既然歐盟最大得益者都帶頭讓步，分分鐘英國重新傾條件真係賺數少。

There is a saying that, those voting to Leave is uneducated, know nothing about economics, and xenophobic. Well, I am not going to talk about xenophobic, as I believe trying to protect your own people, someone you knows, you treasure, is human nature, or I should say, the nature of all living thing with certain level of, intelligence. I would focus back on economics and trades.

So, who are the biggest supporters of the Stay party? Billionaires. Why? Because they make the most profit from EU, and they alone gain from EU. They can have cheap labour and cheap raw materials. One can easily find a Chinese restaurant owner emphasizing that no locals are willing to work in a Chinese restaurant, because of the long working hour and low pay, and it’s EU that helps get cheap workers. There are numerous regulations that hindering local industries, and fisheries obviously is not the only one that can be liberalized after leaving EU. Big businesses gain a lot from EU membership, while small businesses, unfortunately, gained nothing much from EU, or even get a worse business environment, for example, more difficult to get local suppliers supplying them, which, the local suppliers themselves are directly facing competition from, suppliers of other EU members. In other words, leaving EU only forces businesses to pay more to hire locals to do the jobs, and if imports really getting unbearably expensive, then, just turn to local suppliers, which, obviously brings more good than harm. And, we Hong Kongers should be extremely familiar with this, as who gained from CEPA and the 50M Chinese tourists every year? So now, this explains why the Leave party outnumbers the Stay party, right?

OK, we then turn to trades. From the beginning HM Treasury has been threatening Britons with trades, and trades seems to be the trump card of the Stay party. Yes, of course we know that trade deals have to be renegotiated, and it doesn’t make sense for the EU to provide exactly the same terms to a non-member, right? Well, to be honest, it doesn’t mean UK has to settle with poorer terms. With EU, everything is in the package, its member has no say at all on trade terms. After leaving, however, UK can only choose to make deals that benefit themselves most. Mind you, the world has 195 countries, according to the United Nations, excluding Taiwan. Which means, if there is any single sector that EU does not provide the best terms, UK can now turn to another trading partner, rather than sticking with EU. If this sounds too complicated for our better educated Stay party friends, to use a simpler example, it’s just like studying in boarding school that you have to stick with the dormitory no matter what happened, or studying in university that you can actually choose an apartment outside the university campus. Yes, I know, dormitory, just like EU, is paradise, and perfect likes Eden offered by god, right? Don”t get fooled by the government, idiots. Only slaves believe every single thing the establishment said, time to grow up, the “wiser ones”.

Last but not least, there are actually countries queuing to close trade deals with the independent UK, which previously cannot be made because of its EU membership, including Japan and Canada, while US also can have new trade deals with UK. And I don’t doubt that Switzerland and Norway would like to negotiate deals with the independent UK too. Oops, did I leave out foreign investment? Yes, billionaires like Li Ka-shing from Hong Kong said he may reduce investment in UK if it’s no longer in EU. Well, sounds like he has alternatives.

By the way, sounds like someone stupid enough to believe that the collapse of global stock markets indicate that Brexit is a bad thing? Well, this sort of uneducated bragging does not need to be addressed usually, but anything, to answer it in a simple way, did they check that the FTSE 100 is higher on 24/6 than on 17/6？